by Jojishi » Sat Feb 07, 2015 2:11 am
You think that's scary? Watch the documentary about the Tsar Bomba, then remind yourself that that was actually real. The only reason they didn't make bigger bombs was because it was impractical.
I know this isn't a common belief, but I'm personally more concerned about the current time period. There are way more countries with nuclear capabilities. North Korea is one of them and while people are laughing them off now, they can already cause devastation on the level of another Hiroshima. They just need to launch a successful missile. A rogue, desperate country is not one you want with the destructive capability and they're going to be a wild card threat to the rest of the world in the 2020s.
Another question is what happened to all of the 70,000+ nuclear warheads that the US and USSR had stockpiled? Well, lots of them were dismantled and stuff but the main concern is the nuclear waste which a terrorist organisation could get their hands on and then construct a dirty bomb out of. It's probable that not only one, but quite a few dirty bombs have been constructed in a huge secretive plot. They could just be stockpiling at the moment until they carry out their plan. Not many people could be killed with a dirty bomb (roughly a hundred or so) but it would cause massive disruption with the radiation and everyone would collectively freak out. A huge plot with half a dozen or so of these bombs could rival the 9/11 attack. I think this is a matter of not if, but when.
One more thing which is a huge threat to peace is the general apathy and arrogance about the current nuclear situation. Many people act like it's impossible that a nuclear exchange could ever happen since they believe MAD is full-proof, or because nothing ever happened in the Cold War then nothing will ever happen. This is a very bad mistake, as it's more likely we just got lucky and we're just running out of chances now. You only need to look at all the historical close calls to see how lucky we were. Even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there was the Norwegian rocket incident in 1995 where the nuclear brief case was actually pulled out. What if a cool head hadn't prevailed? It's very important to realize that this was after the Cold War. With current tensions between the West and Russia, could another scenario such as this play out? We better hope not, because we might not be so lucky like we were the other times and an accidental exchange could likely happen.
Another worrying fact is that wars typically cycle with the birth and death of each generation, in our case, 70 years. World War II ended almost exactly 70 years ago. There are many parallels with what caused the two World Wars and today. Firstly, there was the Great Depression, which was only matched by the Great Recession in 2008. It would seem that the risk of something bad happening is quite high in our times. It would also be silly to assume that something won't happen our entire lives. What could likely happen is a huge nuclear weapon accident, dirty bomb terrorist plot, or even a limited nuclear exchange. These scenarios wouldn't kill everyone like has been exaggerated, but would set the entire world back by a few decades. If it was severe enough, it could send us into a Dark Age of sorts.
If anything broke out between the United States and Russia today, you can bet that China, India and (quite possibly) Brazil and even Australia could emerge as new super powers. This has been supported by researchers which have looked at population, location and current resources in these locations. In any case, even if nothing does happen there very likely could be a Second Cold War while a huge shift in geopolitics occurs. A Korean War could be a flash-point for a proxy war between the US and Russia if tensions escalate. Remember, they only have a ceasefire (the longest one in history) so a war could still likely happen between the two countries.
So to sum it up, I think some huge issues are going to emerge in the 2020s and that we're quite possibly seeing the start of some of it. 2050s could also be another worrying time as if a Cold War II were to occur, right at the end of it when things seem to be thawing, there will be resource shortages in many parts of the world if the change to renewable energy hasn't happened. At this point, things could get very tense. I know my view isn't supported by many people, but it's just my opinion from what I've researched extensively on the topic.